What happened
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its October meeting is 44.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 55.4%.
The same data set puts the probability of rates staying unchanged through December at 12.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 39.8%.
Why it matters
These figures are market-implied probabilities derived from FedWatch, so they reflect how traders are pricing the path of policy rather than any official signal from the central bank.
The gap between the October outcomes is narrow, suggesting investors see the near-term decision as close to a coin flip, while the December distribution spreads across three scenarios and points to wider uncertainty further out.
Key facts
Probability of no rate change in October: 44.6%.
Probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike in October: 55.4%.
Probability of no rate change by December: 12.6%.
Probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December: 47.7%.
Probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by December: 39.8%.
The data comes from CME's "FedWatch" tool, cited by Sina Finance.
What to watch next
Whether the October probabilities shift as the meeting approaches, since a move toward or away from the 50% line would signal a change in market conviction.
How the December scenarios reprice, particularly the balance between a 25-basis-point and a 50-basis-point cumulative hike.
