What happened
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged in October is 50.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 49.8%.
For December, the same data shows an 11.3% probability of rates staying unchanged, a 50.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike, and a 38.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike.
Why it matters
The October figures are close to a coin flip, suggesting market participants see little consensus on the Fed's next move at that meeting.
The December distribution points to a majority view that at least one hike will have occurred by year-end, with a smaller but notable share pricing in two.
Key facts
October: 50.2% probability of no change, 49.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike.
December: 11.3% probability of no change, 50.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike, 38.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike.
The data comes from CME's "FedWatch" tool, as reported by Sina Finance.
What to watch next
Whether the October probabilities shift as the meeting approaches, and how the December distribution responds to any change in near-term expectations.
