What happened
An analysis from East Money's AI research indicates that cross-border payment services are entering a period of dense policy catalysts, with trade settlement demand expected to surge in 2026.
The People's Bank of China is advancing cross-border trade facilitation and raising thresholds for payment licenses, which is seen as favorable for existing licensed institutions.
Digital RMB cross-border trials have reached 26 countries and regions, and the mBridge project has moved into its MVP stage, broadening the potential scope of digital currency settlements.
Why it matters
The combination of policy support, faster RMB internationalization (with CIPS now connecting over 110 countries), and digital RMB experiments could reshape how cross-border transactions are settled.
Stricter licensing rules and rising settlement volumes may boost the outlook for licensed payment providers, making them key beneficiaries of the expanding market.
As the ecosystem matures, the focus will shift to which payment scenarios gain traction first and whether infrastructure can keep pace with demand.
Key facts
Cross-border trade settlement demand is set to surge in 2026.
The People's Bank of China continues to promote cross-border trade facilitation and has raised the license threshold for cross-border payment providers.
CIPS direct participants cover more than 110 countries, driving higher settlement penetration.
Digital RMB cross-border pilots are underway in 26 countries and regions.
The mBridge project has entered its MVP stage.
Licensed payment institutions are experiencing sustained improvements in business prospects.
What to watch next
Which cross-border payment use cases will benefit first from the policy support and settlement demand boom.
How licensed payment institutions will scale operations to capture rising demand from RMB internationalization and digital RMB adoption.
Investment opportunities in A-share companies tied to cross-border payment infrastructure, as implied by the source's reference to core listed targets.