What happened

European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said that second-round energy price increases will push inflation higher.

According to Lane, inflation will only begin to move back toward the target level from mid-2027.

Why it matters

The remarks suggest the ECB expects energy-driven price pressures to persist rather than fade quickly, which could shape how long restrictive policy stays in place.

By pointing to mid-2027 for a return toward target, Lane signals that the final stretch of disinflation may be slower than a simple drop in energy prices would imply.

Key facts

Lane is the ECB's chief economist.

Lane said second-round energy price increases will push inflation higher.

Lane said inflation will only fall back toward target from mid-2027.

What to watch next

Whether subsequent ECB commentary repeats the mid-2027 timeline or shifts it as energy price dynamics evolve.

How the ECB frames the distinction between direct energy price moves and second-round effects in future communications.

Sources