What happened
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets said the U.S. Treasury's expanded buyback program is not a complete loss for long-term government debt.
In a Wednesday research report, they acknowledged that 30-year yields have climbed back to around where they stood before last month's buyback announcement.
They attributed the rise in long-end yields largely to higher oil prices, while noting long-end swap spreads have held onto gains since the plan was announced.
Why it matters
If long-end swap spreads have retained their improvement, it suggests the buyback may still be helping market functioning or pricing in parts of the Treasury market, even when headline yields look unchanged.
The distinction between yield moves driven by oil and by the buyback itself could shape how investors interpret the program's effectiveness going forward.
Key facts
RBC Capital Markets strategists said the expanded Treasury buyback plan has a positive effect on long-term Treasuries.
The 30-year yield has returned to roughly its level from before the Treasury announced the buyback plan last month.
Long-end swap spreads have retained their gains since the buyback was announced, according to RBC.
What to watch next
Whether long-end swap spreads continue to hold or extend their improvement as oil prices move.
Any further Treasury communications about the buyback schedule could offer clues about the program's lasting impact.