What happened
Fresh figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, indicate that renewable energy sources are on track to surpass natural gas in installed capacity within the next year, potentially before summer 2027.
The projection includes newly added small-scale solar systems, which factor into the growing renewable total and accelerate the expected crossover.
Why it matters
This milestone would mark a significant shift in the U.S. energy mix, as natural gas has long been a dominant source of electricity generation. Achieving higher installed capacity for renewables signals a structural change in how the country powers itself.
Including small-scale solar in the calculation demonstrates that distributed generation is playing an increasingly important role, not just utility-scale projects, in driving the transition away from fossil fuels.
Key facts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released new data reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
Renewables' installed capacity is likely to surpass natural gas by summer 2027 or sooner.
The forecast includes new small-scale solar capacity.
What to watch next
Future EIA updates will show whether the projected crossover occurs as expected or shifts due to changing deployment rates or policy moves.
The actual timing will depend on how quickly new renewable projects, particularly small-scale solar, come online relative to any changes in natural gas capacity.