What happened
Chang'an Automobile Vice President He Gang said on Sept. 5 that the intelligent-driving industry is about to enter a period of mergers and consolidation, predicting the first round of industry reshuffling will be basically complete around 2028. He estimated that only five or six competitive intelligent-driving solution providers will remain in the Chinese market at that point.
He spoke after Chang'an unveiled its Tianshu Pilot technology achievements on Sept. 4, a system offered in Pro, Max, Ultra and Ultimate tiers, all featuring lidar and an end-to-end architecture. The first model to use it, the Chang'an Qiyuan Q06, has started pre-sales and received over 11,000 orders within two hours, with the Ultra version accounting for 53% and dual-motor rear-drive versions exceeding 30% of orders.
He Gang also revealed that total investment in the Tianshu Pilot system has surpassed 60 billion yuan, with product R&D accounting for more than half and a development team of 7,500 people. Road tests with multiple external automakers have already been completed, and strategic cooperation agreements are expected to be signed soon, with large-scale application on non-Chang'an vehicles possible as early as next year.
Why it matters
The prediction points to a fast-approaching shakeout in China's intelligent-driving sector, where scale, data and talent will determine survival. He Gang highlighted three core capabilities companies must build, with data and talent singled out as the most critical barriers, which suggests only deeply resourced players will remain viable.
The upcoming mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicle autonomous driving safety, GB 44721—2026, set to take effect next July, is described as creating a unified access threshold for L3 and L4 systems. This could accelerate the consolidation He Gang predicts, as smaller providers struggle to meet standardized safety requirements.
Key facts
Chang'an released Tianshu Pilot technology on Sept. 4, with four tiers: Pro, Max, Ultra and Ultimate, all equipped with lidar and end-to-end technology.
The Chang'an Qiyuan Q06 pre-sale exceeded 11,000 orders in two hours; Ultra version made up 53% and dual-motor rear-drive over 30%.
Tianshu Pilot total investment exceeds 60 billion yuan, R&D investment is over half of that, and the development team includes 7,500 people.
Mandatory national standard GB 44721—2026 for intelligent connected vehicle autonomous driving safety will be implemented on July 1 next year.
Yang Dayong estimates that among over 120 car brands, about 100 may be eliminated in the coming years, as only about 25–26 brands currently contribute 80% of sales.
What to watch next
Watch whether Chang'an signs strategic agreements with external automakers and brings Tianshu Pilot to non-Chang'an vehicle models next year, which would expand the system's reach beyond its own brands.
Overseas deployment of high-speed NOA and a possible launch of urban NOA in the UAE as soon as next year will be an early test of whether the technology can scale globally.
L3 autonomous driving hardware is already in place on the Q06, and Tao Ji expects large-scale L3 deployment as soon as next year, but the unclear safety standards for consumer sales mean the actual timeline depends on regulatory progress.