What happened
In late August, China's live hog prices rose for a third consecutive week, reaching 11.55 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3% week-on-week, though still down 18.8% year-on-year. Pork market prices also increased slightly but remained below last year's levels.
The rebound is attributed to slaughterhouses controlling supply volumes rather than a shortage of hogs, according to a market official at Beijing's Xinfadi wholesale market. Supply remains sufficient and slightly excessive.
Breeding sow inventories have fallen to 37.8 million head as of mid-2026, down 6.5% year-on-year, returning to a 'green' reasonable range. However, the industry still faces losses, with self-breeding farms losing 196-234 yuan per head as of early August.
Why it matters
The price recovery suggests the hog cycle may be bottoming out, but analysts caution against expecting a sharp upturn. Capacity reduction has been offset by higher sow productivity, keeping supply ample.
Persistent losses are driving efficiency improvements and industry consolidation, which could strengthen the sector long-term despite current challenges.
Seasonal demand and earlier capacity cuts may support gradual price increases, but a true cycle reversal is unlikely before 2027.
Key facts
Live hog price: 11.55 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week, down 18.8% year-on-year (August 24-30).
Breeding sow inventory: 37.8 million head, down 6.5% year-on-year, 0.8% above the 37.5 million target.
Hog farming has been loss-making for 11 consecutive months since October 2025.
Pork consumption share in total meat has fallen from 62% in 2018 to about 58% now.
What to watch next
Whether hog prices continue to rise into the fourth quarter as seasonal demand peaks and earlier sow reductions take effect.
If breeding sow inventories drop further toward the 37.5 million target, potentially tightening supply in 2027.
How farmers respond to the rebound—whether they avoid over-expansion and focus on cost control, as advised by experts.